Cointelegraph by William Suberg
2024-06-03 05:38:21
cointelegraph.com
Bitcoin (BTC) heads into June in fighting form as an early push puts key resistance back in play.
BTC price momentum is targeting $69,000 as TradFi markets return to the scene — will this week finally see a breakout?
This is the main question for Bitcoin market participants, and one which has fielded a variety of opinions in recent weeks.
Rangebound for nearly three months, BTC/USD, they argue, is long overdue upside continuation — but hodlers may need to wait longer still.
The coming few days could provide the fuel that bulls need to do the job: United States unemployment figures, recently a catalyst for risk-asset volatility, are due at the end of the week.
Meanwhile, on-chain indicators are lining up to call for a bullish comeback on Bitcoin, while behind the scenes, network fundamentals are inching back toward all-time highs of their own.
As price and sentiment slowly recoups lost ground, Cointelegraph takes a look at the major issues facing Bitcoin traders as June gets underway.
$69,000 forms week’s “important price”
After some spates of volatility over the weekend, BTC/USD had ultimately come full circle by the weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
No sooner had the June 3 candle begun, however, did Bitcoin bulls set the tone for the Asia trading session — higher.
Now back above $69,000 at the time of writing, BTC price action continues to pick battles around that area, with traders seeing a clear need to flip it to solid support.
“TLDR; Market needs to accept & sustain above $69K for continuation higher (new ATHs) so for now we see how things develop into monday,” popular trader Skew wrote in his latest analysis on X (formerly Twitter).
“Early week dips would be my focus for opportunities if given later (following the criteria of risk on or risk off factors).”
Describing $69,000 as “likely an important price this week,” Skew noted increasing ask liquidity above $70,000, with the majority of bids still lower down at around $66,000.
“Current Spot Demand is still around $66K – $65K, with current market bid would like to see some spot bids get moved higher towards $67K,” he summarized.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed ongoing attempts to keep price contained in its current range.
Over the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on on-chain metrics repeating key breakout patterns from earlier this year.
Popular trader and commentator TechDev added to the mood with a chart showing five-day compression at its highest levels in eight years. Prior to that, he had revealed a Bollinger Band breakout against U.S. M1 money supply, which had also been absent since 2017.
Unemployment data precedes FOMC week
A relatively quiet start to the week in terms of macroeconomic data does not mean a complete absence of potential volatility for risk assets.
U.S. initial jobless claims come on June 6, while the day after will see further unemployment numbers.
As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin and crypto markets have been particularly sensitive to employment data, which misses expectations this year.
The implication from surprisingly high unemployment is that tight financial conditions put in place by the Federal Reserve are making themselves felt within the economy. As such, the chances of these being unwound sooner rather than later could increase.
Clarity should come later this month when the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meets to discuss interest rate changes.
“This is the last week of employment data before the June Fed meeting kicks off,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of X commentary on the topic.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool nonetheless preserves the status quo among markets — no significant chance of a rate cut until September or later.
“Even if the Fed does manage to squeeze in one rate cut this year, the central bank looks forced into holding rates higher for longer,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on June 2.
It added that declining chances of a cut were nonetheless “not necessarily a bad thing for the stock market.”
BTC price preps breakout from “longest consolidation yet”
Bitcoin and global liquidity are a match which for bulls was made in heaven — and the latest chart data says it all.
Currently circulating on social media is an “extremely bullish” comparison between BTC/USD and the U.S. M1 money supply.
M1 supply refers to the sum of cash, demand deposits and checks in the U.S. economy. Over the years, Bitcoin has exhibited a key dynamic against M1, and as of June 2024 looks to be repeating its biggest-ever breakout against it.
“Significant,” popular trader and analyst TechDev wrote in commentary while uploading the comparison to X on June 1.
“Bitcoin has only seen blow-off tops after breakouts against M1 money supply. And the longer it’s consolidated, the longer it’s run. This breakout follows the longest consolidation yet.”
The chart shows that the breakout phase in fact began last year, but by historical standards, it is yet to make its presence felt.
The status quo has in fact stayed in place for a record seven years — with the implication that the fledgling breakout should be uniquely volatile to match.
“In fact, it represents a textbook breakout of a 5 year broadening wedge,” TechDev continued.
“The last 5 years have been corrective against M1. $BTC is once again impulsive against it for the first time since 2017. We’ve never seen a Bitcoin breakout like this one.”
The phenomenon was not lost on the trading community, being noticed by figures including veteran trader Peter Brandt.
“We never had the blowoff top in 2021 and it just all has been consolidation against M1 money supply so we’re in for mega moon,” popular commentator WhalePanda continued in part of his own response.
During the 2017 breakout, BTC/USD enjoyed parabolic upside for the following nine months.
Difficulty bounces as miners decrease BTC exposure
Bitcoin network fundamentals are slowly bouncing back after a rapid cooling during early May’s downward price action.
The latest data from monitoring resource BTC.com predicts a roughly 1.7% difficulty increase on June 6.
This will build on a 1.5% jump from two weeks ago, helping mitigate the 5.6% drop, which came before that which cost difficulty its all-time high position.
Hash rate, the aggregate processing power dedicated to the network by miners, continues to consolidate after hitting record highs in April, per raw data from MiningPoolStats.
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, however, miners themselves face challenging conditions.
More than one month after April’s block subsidy halving, miners’ net BTC holdings are declining on a rolling 30-day basis — a trend which is accelerating.
As on June 2, the latest date for which data is available, miner balances were 2,500 BTC lower than they were 30 days prior.
Compared to the run-up to the halving, the balance reduction is not as steep. Beginning in November 2023, miners began selling BTC in moves which became the norm throughout Q1, Glassnode shows.
Kraken sees giant 48,000 BTC withdrawal
Amid a general trend of declining BTC balances across crypto exchanges, one in particular stood out this weekend.
Related: Bitcoin just had its best May since 2019 despite ‘predatory’ 3% BTC price dip
Glassnode confirms that on May 30 and May 31, withdrawals at the popular trading platform totaled nearly 50,000 BTC ($3.44 billion).
The May 30 figure alone marks the second-largest daily withdrawal from any exchange in BTC terms since the end of the 2022 Bitcoin bear market. For Kraken, it was one of the largest on record.
The moves were not lost on market observers, with Vivek Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, describing them as “wild.”
“Supply shock incoming, ATH is imminent,” he wrote in part of a further X post after the second day’s outflows hit.
Kashif Raza, founder of Bitcoin education platform Bitinning, noted coins leaving Kraken to external wallets in several transactions.
As Cointelegraph reported, exchanges have been seeing solid demand for BTC for years, with aggregate balances now at levels not seen since 2017.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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