Ranked: The Countries Most Impacted by a Trump Presidency

Kayla Zhu
2024-10-22 07:32:00
www.visualcapitalist.com

Ranked: The Countries Most Impacted by a Trump Presidency

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Donald Trump’s core policies could have profound impacts on key nations if he is re-elected this November.

While expanded tariffs could generate $3 trillion in revenue over the next 10 years, it could strain relations with major trading partners. Meanwhile, a tougher stance on immigration policy could impact smaller Latin American countries the most.

This graphic shows the countries most vulnerable to Trump’s policies, based on The Economist’s Trump Risk Index.

Methodology

The Trump Risk Index assesses the exposure and vulnerability of America’s 70 largest trading partners to potential policy changes. The scores are based on several trade, security, and immigration indicators, such as the following:

• Trade: Sensitive exports to the U.S, reliance on U.S. in goods and trade, bilateral trade balance
• Security: U.S. military aid, U.S. troop presence, military spending, spending on U.S. arms
• Immigration: Visas issued, remittances

The Top 10 Countries Impacted by Trump’s Policies

Overall, Mexico faces the highest risk if Trump is re-elected, driven largely by its substantial trade surplus with America.

A key focus of Trump’s agenda is reducing the trade deficit with economic partners. This presents significant risk to Mexico not only because America has a $152 billion trade deficit with one of its largest trading partners, but because a substantial share of exports are sensitive exports like cars, aluminium, and steel.

Rank	Country	Trade	Security	Immigration	Trump Risk Score (100 = most exposure)
1	Mexico	100	56.3	44.4	71.4
2	Costa Rica	33.8	100	27.8	59.1
3	Germany	55.5	72.8	7.7	52.9
4	Dominican Republic	29	56.7	91.4	52.6
5	Panama	13.1	100	27.7	50.8
6	China	76.7	46.8	4.7	50.4
7	Japan	53.8	65.3	8	49.2
8	El Salvador	18.2	52	100	48.1
9	Vietnam	64.4	39.8	27	47.1
10	Honduras	26.7	51.7	72.4	45.8

As the above table shows, several Latin American countries, such as Costa Rica and Panama, are also at high risk due to their reliance on U.S. military support and vulnerability to changes in immigration policy.

Germany, with the third-highest exposure, faces significant security risks. In the past, Trump has pushed Germany and other NATO members to increase defense spending, and this could intensify in a second term due to the Ukraine war.

In preparation, Germany is boosting its defense budget, and for the first time in three decades, plans to install long-range U.S. weapons on its soil.

We can see that China faces high risk, given sweeping tariffs as part of Trump’s wider decoupling strategy. The biggest threat would come from the revocation of China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status, which was granted when China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001. In response, China may focus on its consumer market, while strengthening ties with other markets.

The post Ranked: The Countries Most Impacted by a Trump Presidency appeared first on Visual Capitalist.

Source Link