What to expect from the UN climate conference dubbed the ‘finance COP’

Nations will meet next week to hammer out agreements on climate action at the 29th UN climate change conference, COP 29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Dr. Simon Donner, professor in the department of geography and the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, and the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries at UBC, will be attending his third COP. He outlines the hopes and challenges of this year’s conference.

What do you hope to see out of this COP?

I’d like to see some signals as to what countries are going to be planning for their next targets. By February, countries are due to submit their next national climate plans, and COP29 will be a window into what individual nations are planning in terms of transitioning away from fossil fuels, reducing emissions, and adapting to climate change. Some countries may announce their 2035 emissions reduction targets at COP29, including Canada.

Second, I’d like to see whether nations can agree on a new goal for climate finance, the money mobilized by developed nations to help developing nations respond to climate change. This meeting is being called the “climate finance COP” and there’s a lot of debate about this goal.

Canada is at an interesting point politically, with the threat of an election and climate policy, particularly carbon pricing, at the forefront of political discussions. At the same time, Canada has a commitment by the end of this year to set an emissions target for the year 2035. The advisory body I co-chair has advised the government that this target should be a 50 to 55 percent reduction below 2005 levels.

How will this conference be different?

Unfortunately, for the third year in a row, the UN climate conference is being hosted by a major fossil fuel-producing state that is not that interested in transitioning away from fossil fuels. This does influence what happens in the negotiations and in the final text.

How might a Trump presidency affect the negotiations, and global climate action?

The U.S. election result is like receiving news of an incoming hurricane. At COP29, negotiators will be scrambling to protect the shoreline for when the storm hits, and deciding how to rebuild after the storm passes. Major fossil fuel producers like the host country and Russia will feel emboldened to try and water down text about shifting away from fossil fuels. That could seriously undermine progress and what little public faith there is in the UN process.

However, other nations, including the EU countries and possibly China, will look to further claim the mantle of global leadership on climate action, and in general. The world has been through President Trump withdrawing from the Paris Agreement before. If it happens again, the world will be more than ready to move on without the U.S. President Trump should be careful about what he wishes for.

What are some ‘green flags’ ahead of the conference?

There has been incredible progress on transitioning toward low-carbon forms of energy. We’ve seen the cost of solar power decrease by 90 percent in the past 10 years, battery storage by about 90 percent, and wind energy by about 65 percent, to the point that the vast majority of wind and solar installations around the planet are now cheaper than coal. The world has also pledged to triple renewable energy sources by the end of this decade.

As well, a number of countries have reduced their emissions in recent years. China’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to peak and then begin to decline before the end of the decade.

What issue isn’t getting enough attention right now?

Something that never gets enough attention is international climate finance. Developed, industrialized nations who are mainly responsible for climate change have agreed to help developing nations respond to climate change by mobilizing money. There’s a debate currently about who should contribute to climate finance and the total amount of money that should be provided over time.

What most concerns me is whether this accounting will incorporate climate change adaptation. We need to reduce emissions, but we also need to make sure there’s enough money for climate change adaptation in the developing world. We have no choice but to adapt to climate change. The impacts are already being felt around the world. And adaptation is expensive because it is so localized. I’m hoping that the nations set a separate sub-goal specifically for adaptation finance and I hope that it’s a big portion of the total.