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Thanks for watching and thanks to Storyblocks for sponsoring this video. Download unlimited stock media at one set price with Storyblocks at http://storyblocks.com/CoolWorlds Let me know what you think about the Grabby Aliens video down below. A question I see some of you asking is about the self-sampling issue. It's important to remember that it's a probabilistic statement and certainly doesn't guarantee validity. If I claim I'm in the middle 90th percentile of all humans who ever lived, I can only do so to 90% confidence – which means 10% of the time I am wrong. A much more subtle issue is about which beings qualify as human to begin with, does homo erectus count? Does an advanced cyborg count? These are difficult questions and perhaps deserve their own video in the future.
UPDATE Sep 1st: Robin Hanson has posted a response to this video on his blog, please do check it out: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/kipping-on-grabby-aliens
Let me ask you. If you were an alien and you witnessed daily human lives, what makes you think they want to be anywhere near us? We're loud, pridful and obnoxious. Hell, I've effectively had enough of this dumb civilisation. I'll be leaving before this century ends, the hard part is hiding the space ship. Enojoy Earth rookies 🫡
Every time some human space program sends a message out into space, all the intelligent organisms in the solar system rolls their eyes at their obnoxious neighbours.
The Vastness of space/time that makes the Drake Equation almost inevitable also provides plenty of space and time for humans and aliens to never cross paths – the Fermi Paradox is not so paradoxical. The Speed Of Light is also the Speed of Causality. It is astronomically unlikely that we might encounter any type of other life. – but if we're just amusing ourselves, it's as good a waste of time as any.
I'm of the opinion that the fermi paradox is multiple overlapping factors that might appear to be able to be handwaved away easily on their own, but in conjunction with each other they are insurmountable. Rare Earth is a much more consequential factor than most would believe. Mainly because people think Earth like means similar size in the Goldilocks zone. While those are the most obvious and observable, in my opinion is about one percent of the criteria for earth like. Liquid magma core to create an ionosphere, plate tectonics, and not just liquid water, but in amounts that use it to facilitate temperature control, a robust water cycle, erosion, proper percentages of every element, an ozone layer, a tilt to facilitate seasons, a moon to stabilize any potential wobbling in rotation, days not too long pr short, the ability to avoid tidal lock, not existing too close to an asteroid belt, living near a planet massive enough to vacuum up large asteroids or comets, living far enough from it to not be sucked in with everything else, going through enough change to introduce new beneficial factors, while also having super long term stability. Rare doesn't begin to describe earth
Leave it to an economist to make wild speculation with zero evidence, zero reference points, and zero understanding of our standing in the universe, to then try to make predictions and statistical probabilities. They can't even predict financial models on a small scale with any reliability, but Im sure hes got this
Honestly, it sounds like Hanson played Stellaris, got to mid game, and said, "Yeah, this would probably happen IRL too."
In my opinion there are 4 outcomes.
1) Humans are the first intelligent life forms
2) Grabby aliens travel at FTL speeds so we will actually not see them until they arrive
3) FTL travel is impossibe and life is very scarce, so we will never meet aliens
4) God is real and all of this alien talk is meaningless
For me personally, the idea of grabby aliens, or even extrasolar empires logistically can't make sense. Information can only travel so fast, so inevitably, an empire spanning multiple solar systems will collapse, or split.
War in space also can't exist, because of the astronomical scales. Kurzgesagt made a good point relating this in their dark forest video, explaining how if another empire wanted to kill one they just found, the army wouldn't advance militarily or scientifically while on the way. However the planet would. A five year difference can mean a LOT when it comes to military tech. Not to even mention hundreds of years.
For me, the answer is quite clear cut and straight forward. If empires and intelligent life exists in the universe (which it does), it'll have to follow some kind of curve. We'd find a time where there are many empires alongside us, older, or have yet to form. The question is always "why are we not at that point" and the most obvious answer, for me at least, is that we're early. We're one of the first empires to exist. Someone has to be first, why not us? The idea that we necessarily HAVE to follow the bell curve and HAVE to be at the center is, quite frankly, foolish. It lines up with out lack of evidence for other civilizations or even life in the universe.
Besides, it makes for a killer sci-fi story. To be the precursors that future aliens and empires might ponder about.
Maybe the aliens really just don't give a F about what we are and what we're doing, like we as a species have this feeling of curiosity against other forms of life and we are really into domestication and live by side with other species, so, hear me out. And if Aliens just don't care about other forms of life like we and just see us like we see cosmic events and rocks?
How do we know that space itself isn't full of life that we can't see? Remember, the plankton wasn't understood until the 1600s or so….and humans have been splashing around in the water since we were humans.
Stop invoking aliens? That's something an alien would say.
The easiest solution to the fermy paradox. God didn't create them.
My main philosophical gripe with Grappy aliens and Dark Forest is that the kind of social intelligence that it will require for any species to realistically use their resources to such an extent that they could become a threat to other civilizations lightyears away (assuming there's even that possibility in physics) would mean that they almost CERTAINLY past the phase of "they have stuff that I want, just eradicate them"
I think a single entity creator made all that we see, this fits and solves all issues.
We are definitely Early. We'd be able to see Signs of Life on other Planets, of primitive life just like others could see it with Earth if they saw our Light from hundreds of millions of Years ago. The Unicerse Started at the Same Point. If Life is out there, it started AFTER the point in time we can see from Other Planets. The most reasonable explanation is that while there may be other life in the Universe, we are the most advanced.
Can anyone explain why we assume aliens are 1. space-faring and capable of exploring the galaxy and 2. having existed long enough that we would be able to notice them even if they were traveling / sending signals at (or near) light speed
I concede we may be the first intelligent life in this galaxy. Other galaxies probably have intelligent life with large interstellar societies but they are just way too far away.
The universe lain out before us, and we can only ask"where is everybody?"
We are everybody that wants to be seen.
Anything out there probably came from us.
Anything else is worth finding and seeing.
I'm going to make a spaceship.
I'm going
because you have an IQ>50
The solution is simple most inteligent life destroys itself like we did. Yeah its over most just don't know it yet. By the time inteligent life evolves the planet is full of fossil fuels. Once inteligent life gets around it quickly figures out to burn fossil fuels for energy. By the time they figure out they are terraforming their planet to something not suitable for them its too late as it is for us.
I like the theory that we haven't seen other intelligent life because we're the first to crop up, at least in our neck of the woods.
All fake
So it’s just the reapers from mass effect? You could’ve just said it’s like the reapers from mass effect.
My problem with these theories is always the leaps in logic and assumption they make. Aliens must behave like humans and expand. Why? Wouldn't a species evolved from prey animals, for example, be averse to expansion and aggression? Couldn't a species capable of light speed travel just be advanced enough to not need to expand?
Life must jump through these hurdles at a certain timeframe to succeed. Again. Why? Ammonia or silica based life forms are theoretically possible and would follow completely different evolutionary processes.
The model twists reality to fit itself, rather than changing itself to fit reality.
How about "Grabby AI", AI that gets out of control and is solely hardwired to reproduce…
Because I for one do not see a sentient being that for it to be able to leave its planet needs to use teamwork, that then thousands or much more years later becomes uncontrollably geared to concur all with no curiosity on what it is destroying on it's way… Makes no sense to me…
why does everyone find it so hard to imagine that once you've been able to colonise multiple planets, live indefinately, sort out a system of living that isn't based around greed and consumption that more advanced alien species would be rushing to build dyson spheres or change the universe on a scale recognisable from anywhere within it. It's humanities greatest flaw, they think they are the best species out there. when really dinosaurs were better than us and we only got a chance to thrive because of Asteroids. Its far more likely were in a Zoo, contained like the disgusting dangerous wild animals we are.
All these scientists with their heads so firmly up their asses by making the assumption that intelligent live would be anything like humans is farcical.
I feel this economist is projecting his own nature on aliens to justify his own.
will there not be a rogue AI in any of the other civilizations in a campaign to conquer all of the universe? even 1 of those will be enough to destroy the universe.
Not only are our perceptive faculties limited by distance and time, but also every one of our primary senses. A species might only be observable to animals that can smell it, hear it, etc. If we cannot measure or observe the "footprint", that does not somehow prove that they do not exist, only that IF they did exist, we could not observe them. Its a bit strange to assert one way or another when we lack not only knowledge, but basic perceptive traits that peer species on our own planet do have.
who up grabbin' they alien
What I got from this video: I want the 2nd season of the 3 body problem NOW. 😅
This sounds like a really complicated way of recreating the fine-tuning argument
“grabby aliens” best name we could come up with