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Very common question I’m seeing here, and indeed honestly a very common question students have in my classes about statistics, is what if one of the oldest civilizations applied this reasoning – wouldn’t they get a totally different and wrong answer? Yes they would, but that’s how statistics works! Not everyone is guaranteed to be right every time. The oldest civilizations in this scenario would be the rarest and thus although they would arrive at the wrong answer, the majority of the sample would arrive at the correct answer. Think of it like this – if you state there’s a 90% chance of an event occurring, you will predict the wrong answer 10% of the time. That’s not a failure of statistics, it’s intrinsic to how it works as everything has uncertainty. All we can do in statistics is make probabilistic statements e.g. this is the most likely outcome, or this happens 90% of the time. Challenging to explain this in a single comment, it takes students a long time to grasp this concept usually but I hope that helps!
An exponential curve for technological civilizations is only valid if they continue to be dependent on their home world. If they could engineer their own bodies, or settle new worlds, then it would become very difficult to make them go extinct. If they could also engineer their own societies and their own minds to become more adaptive, then it would also become less likely that they would collapse due to internal problems. This is entirely speculative, of course, because we haven't seen such a thing yet.
When considering space exploration at the speed of light it would take approximately 4 years to arrive at our nearest neighbouring star. To date the furthest man has traveled is the moon which represents only 1.3 seconds at the speed of light
🗿
The roll of a die
You humans, we’ve been here since before your last ice age. Individual human life spans are so short to recognize us.
A great video but the concept is also dependant on the age of the civilization itself. When you are born everyone is older than you, and when you are very old nearly everyone is younger so the result is forever shifting. Unless you mentioned this and it just went over my head, I was working while I listened…
Just outstanding….
I have like 5 sci fi novel ideas whenever i watch these videos
My favorite thing about this channel is it is able to discuss contentious topics like FTL and aliens without demeaning anyone. I've found a lot of science channels like to be like "this is wrong and dumb" when discussing theoretical physics. It allows us to imagine, but imagine realistically.
31:00 Time is long, space is big, life is rare, paradox solved!
Having just read, the Three Body Trilogy, i wonder whether it prudent to not advertise our existance. If we found evidence of another civilization, can we be certain they haven't noticed us? What would be our intentions? Another civilisation could see us as a threat to their own existance, either now or in the future and decide to eliminate us as a precaution. Or vice-versa.
Pseudo science scientism bullshite jargon and repulsive unrealistic rhetoric. 🗑️ 💩
I think any highly technological civilizations would ignore us, they would be more interested in civilizations more advanced than them.
The dark forest theory always comes to my head to the reason why we don’t find life out there
Maybe aliens have heard our attempts at contact. But are aware that we are a violent and disruptive species on the brink of destroying eachother with nuclear weapons. Would you want to make contact with us if you were an extraterrestrial? I wouldn't.
Than there is the vastness of space. Just to get to the nearest star (proxima centurai) with current tech it would take over 80000 years to get there.
An independent martian colony would count as another technological civilization?
At 18:45 when you quoted Cloud Atlas' corniest line I was balling and then 10 seconds later you went and included that scene ROTFL
This question has been answered if you focus on investigative journalism instead on mathematics or physics, you can choose to ignore human testimony but that data still exist, according to thousands if not millions of people we had and continue to be visited by non human life literally every single day and probably for thousands of years. I can personally tell my story and I'll perfectly understand I you can't/wouldn't believe it.
Narrator: So sit down, grab a cup of tea….
Me: Yeahhh, I really don't think I can afford that.
It always blows my mind how these genius people are always searching for signs of life exactly like the ones found on our planet. Signs of carbon and water based life, like what makes up the laws of physics in our little chunk of space is undeniable fact for the entirety of the universe, it seems incredibly presumptuous to me. The fact is that we have no idea what we're even looking for, and as we grasp the concept more and more it seems increasingly likely thatthe aliens we're looking for won't even reside in our same spacial dimension.
Its absolutelly wrong the informed data that species die within 70 million years. It bothers me because this talks against the quality of the whole video
Isn't this the same guy who gave a lecture on reeling in our enthusiasm regarding intelligent life elsewhere in the universe?
So this implies that, assuming other civilizations comes to similar conclusions, every civilization believes that they're surrounded by more advanced neighbours. I might be wrong, but isn't this reinforcing the dark forest theory? Every civilization, regardless of their true age and advancement, concluded that it's best to lie low.
Far more advanced civilizations and how they wpuld treat us would purely depend upon their intentions as a race. If they are like us, warlike, petty, selfish and filled with religious zealots/fascists/socialists who came to an advanced position through wiping out those who didnt agree with the strongest group….? We would be facing a terrible scenario of risk. Its not so far fetxhed to believe that these civilizations went through the similar teething problems we've had and continue to experience. I'm not betting on our older neighbours being friendly. But I hope I am completely wrong amd they're Vulcan, interested in helping us advance as a species. I just cannot see it. Unfortunately I see too much on Earth to worry about treatment of our species. Another, older more advanced species would see this and recognize our failings and fears and prey upon us. After all…..himan nature is in the genes.
But once you've colonized another star system, your chances of being wiped out completely in both in any given time frame is massively reduced (inverse squared, then inverse cubed after colonising another, etc….).
Given the evidence so far, that is a very weak 'may'….
This is awesome! Thank you so much for your time and work on this explanation. I'm developing a game that is meant to be a simulation of our local bubble. This helps me determine the target statistics in the game for finding a civilization 🙂
I think a civilisation able to take note of our existence would look at us like we look at monkeys using basic tools. We’re realistically probably only a minimal percentage ahead of the monkey in the timeline of what our species could achieve and become. Therefor they find no interest in us, we’re just coexisting with them unknowingly because we’re not advanced enough to be able to detect everything yet.
WOW
Excellent content as always. My personal belief about life out there is less optimistic. Simply put, life here only happened after a highly unlikely series of events and then a very long and stable period between extreme solar, volcanic, climactic, meteoric etc conditons. I also believe the human phenomenon is not natural progress. We are just an unnatural extension of animal life within an ecosystem. Our ability to cultivate food and have idle time to think about other life is not a natural evolution of life. We are still only extensions of agriculture and we are one major event away to going back to horse and plow. Is there life out there? Probably microbial, and certainly very far away. The chances of intelligent life are vanishingly small but not zero. They would be so far away from us in time and space. I think looking and listening and contemplating intelligent life out there is "inspirational science" with all but impossible lottery-type odds of making a break through.
This is exactly what I want for humans not to understand things
If most civilizations are older, then the more reason to stay hidden.
I've recently come across and enjoyed a number of your videos. All are well done, and at the level of detail to stretch my layman's brain a bit, thank you. Regarding the level of extremely older civilizations, is it one possibility to consider is that they might mature and enter a plateau period of senescence so as to not be unimaginably advanced in tech than us? Is there a point where a species does not need to strive to advance in a basically stable and comfortable environment? Of course that seems to leave them vulnerable to one or more of the infrequent consequential events or situations that impact their long-term viability just as old-age diseases do to individuals.
8:25 charting the heights of American men has had universally devastating consequences.
Or not…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqEmYU8Y_rI
Number theory is the queen of mathematics. Statistics is the whore of mathematics.
"a few thousand years ago, the first human civilizations emerged". That's nonsense. Advanced civilizations were around long before that. The proof is becoming more and more undeniable.
A Biome is also a very different "entity" to consider … and applying the distrubution curves of the demise of its parts and parcels (which are by nature continually replaced…).. is logically inconsistent.