Bitcoin futures divergences point to transitioning market — Are BTC bulls accumulating?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has dropped 5.6% over the past seven days, closing three daily candles below the $80,000 support for the first time since Nov. 9, 2024.

Data from Glassnode highlighted Bitcoin witnessing a 64% rise in futures volume during the same period. The analytics platform said that “this marks a reversal from the past month,” when futures volume progressively decreased.

A rise in futures volumes suggested heightened market activity, but further analysis of the broader futures market revealed a more complex outlook. Bitcoin’s open interest (OI), representing the total value of outstanding futures contracts, declined 19% over the past two weeks.

This reduction suggests that while trading volume is increasing, some traders are closing their positions rather than keeping them open, possibly to lock in profits or mitigate risk with respect to Bitcoin’s bearish market structure.

Total crypto liquidations also reached $2 billion between April 6 to April 8, further strengthening the likelihood of traders adopting a cautious approach.

Considering this data collectively suggests that Bitcoin might be in a transitionary state. The surge in futures volume reflects growing interest and speculative activity, potentially signaling the end of a correction phase and the start of an accumulation period. Yet, the decline in open interest highlights a risk-off approach, with traders reducing exposure amid lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.

If Bitcoin price fails to recover while futures volume and open interest converge, that might signal the beginning of a bear market. Likewise, Bitcoin’s price rising alongside OI and trading volumes would imply an accumulation period, followed by a possible uptrend.

Related: Bitcoin on verge of largest ‘price drawdown’ of the bull market — Analyst

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows remain minimal

Major US equities are currently down more than 20% from their all-time highs, with the S&P 500 losing a year’s growth in just over a month. While traditional institutions have possibly faced significant unrealized losses over the past two weeks, spot Bitcoin ETF outflow data did not reflect the market panic just yet.

Over the past two weeks, the total spot BTC ETF outflows have been just under $300 million. This divergence highlights a resilience in Bitcoin’s institutional investor base.

Unlike the selling seen in equity markets, the limited outflows from spot BTC ETFs suggest that institutional investors are not yet panicking, potentially viewing Bitcoin as a hedge or maintaining confidence in its long-term value amid traditional market turmoil.

Related: Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity: Double-edged sword during global market turmoil

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Explore new destinations with ease using the Garmin Drive 52 GPS Navigator! With over 17,988 ratings and a solid 4.4/5-star rating, this GPS system has been a top choice for travelers. Over 500+ units were bought in the past month, all for only $144.99.

This 5″ GPS navigator comes with essential driver alerts, real-time travel data, and external memory storage. The simple on-screen menus and bright, easy-to-see maps make it easy to navigate wherever you are. Plus, it’s road trip-ready with The HISTORY Channel database, featuring notable historic sites and much more to enhance your journey.

Don’t miss out—get your hands on the Garmin Drive 52 today for a smoother ride ahead! Buy Now for $144.99 on Amazon!

Help Power Techcratic’s Future – Scan To Support

If Techcratic’s content and insights have helped you, consider giving back by supporting the platform with crypto. Every contribution makes a difference, whether it’s for high-quality content, server maintenance, or future updates. Techcratic is constantly evolving, and your support helps drive that progress.

As a solo operator who wears all the hats, creating content, managing the tech, and running the site, your support allows me to stay focused on delivering valuable resources. Your support keeps everything running smoothly and enables me to continue creating the content you love. I’m deeply grateful for your support, it truly means the world to me! Thank you!