Switch 2 forecast lowered, but it could still fastest-selling console ever | DFC

DFC Intelligence, a game analyst firm with decades of experience, said it is lowering its Switch 2 unit sales forecast due to pricing concerns. At the same time, DFC expects the Switch 2 to be the fastest-selling console system ever.

The coming June 5 launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 is one of the most important milestones in video game history, said DFC Intelligence. While DFC Intelligence is lowering its unit sales forecast due to pricing concerns, the Switch 2 is expected to be the fastest selling console system ever.

In a statement, Nintendo said of the Trump administration’s tariffs, “Pre-orders for Nintendo Switch 2 in the U.S. will not start April 9, 2025 in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions. Nintendo will update timing at a later date. The launch date of June 5, 2025 is unchanged.”

Nintendo reportedly shifted manufacturing of the Switch 2 from China to Vietnam, but Vietnam got hit with tariffs as well.

Most importantly it will continue to grow Nintendo’s growth among PC gamers and the core adult market. In short, the Switch 2 has the potential to reshape the video game market, DFC said.

Features and launch details

On April 2, Nintendo revealed most of the major details about the long-awaited Switch 2. The system is set to launch June 5 at a price point of $450, with launch title Mario Kart World priced at $80. The price raised eyebrows as it was far more than Nintendo usually charges. Part of the reason is that the Switch 2 is a powerful upgrade (10 times the graphics power) versus the original Switch.

DFC said that despite the premium price, after attending the Switch 2 first preview event in New York City, DFC Intelligence believes the Switch 2 will be the fastest-selling console system ever in its first two years. I saw David Cole, CEO of DFC, at the event briefly.

The April 2 Nintendo Direct was the first reveal of the Switch 2 hardware along with major accessories and upcoming software.

Includes seven new titles and 10 upgraded existing games, such as Hogwarts Legacy, Cyberpunk 2077, and Street Fighter 6. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom offer free
upgrades for online expansion subscribers. And the game can emulate some older Nintendo GameCube games such as The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker.

Market implications

As expected, the Switch 2 looks similar to the original Switch on the surface. However, there are sufficient enhancements and improvements to drive a large portion of the current Switch base to upgrade. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the third-party support that will bring more software for a wider, primarily older, audience, DFC said.

The PlayStation and Xbox Series X/S offered hardware upgrades. However, they failed to significantly redefine the gaming landscape. The Switch 2 is a much-needed power upgrade, but it also adds enough features to make it a compelling proposition for both current Switch owners and consumers looking for a diverse new game ecosystem.

Nintendo’s ability to create AND market new game features remains unsurpassed. Portablility and community features are crucial in today’s game market. Microsoft and Sony have poor track records in portable game systems and surprisingly Nintendo is poised to take a lead in critical social and community aspects.

Past Nintendo platforms have primarily served as a basis for Nintendo’s own software and services. Large third-party games have had limited impact on Nintendo platforms. For the original Switch, Nintendo first-party software accounted for about 80% of total software revenue. In comparison, about 85% of software units sold on PlayStation platforms come from third-party publishers.

The original Switch actually proved to be a strong platform for smaller indie games often priced at $20 or less. With the Switch 2, Nintendo appears committed to bringing triple-A third-party titles to the platform. This is expected to be a major market change that will open opportunities for publishers that were previously dependent on PlayStation platforms (and to a lesser extent Xbox).

There is already an impressive lineup of third-party games coming to the new Switch. This includes major sports games from Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive. Cyberpunk 2077 will get a launch day edition for Switch 2. FromSoftware is not only bringing Elden Ring to the Switch 2 but also announced a major Switch 2 exclusive, The Duskbloods. This was particularly surprising because Sony has been investing in FromSoftware and is the largest minority owner in its parent company, Kadokawa.

Consumer insights

DFC regularly conducts consumer surveys to evaluate gaming trends and platforms. To assess the potential of the Nintendo Switch 2, DFC focused on two key gamer segments:

High-end PC Gamers:

● To qualify as high-end PC gamers, respondents were required to build or regularly upgrade their computer systems, marking them as a tech-savvy and hardware-invested demographic. Among this group, 55% of respondents were over the age of 35, reflecting a more mature audience with significant purchasing power.
● The survey revealed that 44% of all high-end PC gamers own a Nintendo Switch and actively use it to play games, showing its strong crossover appeal even in a PC-first audience. This contrasts with 23% who own and use a PlayStation 5, highlighting the Switch’s unique position in capturing interest from this segment.
● These PC-first users prioritize their PC setups but still find value in the Switch’s portable and unique offerings, emphasizing the expanding reach of Nintendo across different player profiles.

Survey of core PC gamers

Which platform do you own and use to play games?

PlayStation and Xbox Gamers:
● A survey of over 1,000 PlayStation and Xbox users revealed that 83% regularly use two or more gaming systems (at least once a week).
● Notably, 67% also use a Nintendo Switch alongside their preferred PlayStation or Xbox console, showcasing the Switch’s ability to coexist in multi-platform households.

Sentiment Analysis of the Switch 2

DFC also gathered over 600 qualified responses to gauge consumer attitudes toward the Switch 2. Comments were grouped into four distinct categories:

● Excited/Early Adopters:
o Examples include feedback like, “I am excited for the Switch 2 and will buy it as soon as I possibly can.”
● Positive but Cautious:
o Statements such as, “The Switch 2 is an interesting system and I am going to explore purchasing it,” reflect curiosity but hesitation.
● Negative/Not Interested:
o Feedback like, “At this time I do not plan to purchase a Switch 2,” indicates disinterest in the upcoming system.

Overall, 61% of PlayStation and Xbox users expressed positive sentiment toward the Switch 2, reinforcing its potential to expand Nintendo’s audience across different gaming ecosystems.

When the $450 price for the Switch was announced on April 2, DFC said it was relieved. The concern was economic conditions would result in a $500+ price point. At $450 the Switch 2 is a solid value even though the original Switch launched at $300.

However, the announcement coincided with new U.S. tariffs, including a significant 24% tariff on Japanese goods, leading Nintendo to delay pre-orders initially scheduled for April 9 while it assessed the potential impact. The broader macroeconomic challenges facing the video game industry complicate pricing forecasts, with DFC modeling a 20% price increase over the next two years.

DFC said it continues to work closely with game industry clients to prepare for various scenarios, and additional clarity is expected when Nintendo releases its earnings in May, at which time DFC will provide a comprehensive market update.

Software pricing

Software pricing has been another concern, with Mario Kart World and several other major Switch 2 games priced at $80. However, it should be noted that it appears most third-party AAA games will be launching at $70 or less. There is likely to be a major range in software pricing based on perceived demand and gameplay value.

It should also be noted that many Switch titles will be given upgrade packs that allow current Switch owners to upgrade their Switch games to the Switch 2 versions. This includes both Legend of Zelda titles that will have the upgrade pack included at no charge for subscribers to the Nintendo Switch Online + Expansion Pack service ($50 a year). Other upgrade packs are expected to cost $10 to $20.

Overall software pricing is not a major concern given the wide range of pricing and upgrade
options.

Switch 2 forecasts

Due to pricing concerns, DFC Intelligence is lowering its 2025 worldwide forecast for the Switch 2 from 17 million to 15 million units. This will still make the Switch 2 the fastest selling console system ever. Previous best-sellers including the original Switch, the PlayStation 4 and the Wii took at least a year to reach the 15 million unit level.

The lower forecast are directly related to supply and pricing. With tariffs and uncertain pricing Nintendo may choose to scale back its manufacturing. If prices increase substantially due to tariffs, a significant portion of prospective buyers are likely to hold back on a purchase until prices come down. This situation is changing and will be closely monitored as DFC regularly updates its forecast throughout the year. Long term, the upper limit for hardware sales for the Switch 2 is enormous. The Switch 2 continues an established system and the ability to act as a portable device taps into Nintendo’s rich history of offering portable/console experiences.

In terms of overall hardware unit sales, Nintendo had its peak in 2007-2009 when the Wii and DS were available and would regularly sell a combined 40 to 50 million units a year. As the Switch 2 matures it has the ability to capture an even larger share than the original Switch, DFC said.

Conclusion

DFC will be publishing a comprehensive report and updated briefing on the Nintendo Switch 2 following the release of Nintendo’s May earnings. A major concern remains the impact of newly imposed tariffs, a challenge that lies beyond Nintendo’s immediate control yet has significant implications for pricing and supply forecasts.

The DFC team continues to conduct consumer surveys, track evolving market conditions, and generate living forecasts that factor the latest data. While there is a risk that Nintendo will ship fewer Switch 2 units than expected, DFC said it remains confident in high demand for the new system.

Looking beyond immediate pricing challenges, DFC expects that the Switch 2 will be a resounding success. With its expanded appeal and focus on capturing new consumer segments, it will likely redefine what constitutes the core Nintendo audience. Historically seen as a niche or standalone ecosystem, Nintendo is now poised to engage more directly with the broader competitive landscape dominated by Sony and Microsoft.

DFC said this shift could mark a transformational moment for the video game industry, as the Switch 2 positions itself as a serious contender across multiple demographics and game genres. DFC will continue to track these developments closely to provide actionable insights for its clients, anticipating how this dynamic evolution will shape the future of gaming.

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