Charted: Falling GDP Growth Forecasts for 2025

Niccolo Conte
2025-05-02 12:47:00
www.visualcapitalist.com

Charted: Falling GDP Growth Forecasts for 2025

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As 2025 unfolds, the global economy is facing headwinds from rising trade uncertainty and economic slowdowns.

Following Trump’s tariff escalations and countermeasures from trade partners, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global real GDP growth forecast from 3.3% in January 2025 to 2.8% in April.

This infographic shows how 2025 GDP growth forecasts for eight major economies have declined between the IMF’s January 2025 and April 2025 editions of the World Economic Outlook.

Mexico GDP Growth Hit Hardest, U.S. Follows

Following Trump’s new tariffs (initially announced April 2, 2025), America’s average effective tariff rate is now around 14.5%—the highest in 90 years.

High tariff levels, trade tensions, and the resulting uncertainty are expected to dampen economic growth, with major U.S. trade partners bearing the brunt of the impact.

Here’s a look at how real GDP growth forecasts for major economies have been largely downgraded (Russia the only exception) between January and April 2025:

Country	2025 GDP Growth Projection (IMF, January 2025)	2025 GDP Growth Projection (IMF, April 2025)	Difference
World	3.3%	2.8%	-0.5%
United States	2.7%	1.8%	-0.9%
Euro Area	1.0%	0.8%	-0.2%
Japan	1.1%	0.6%	-0.5%
United Kingdom	1.6%	1.1%	-0.5%
Canada	2.0%	1.4%	-0.6%
China	4.6%	4.0%	-0.6%
Russia	1.4%	1.5%	0.1%
Mexico	1.4%	-0.3%	-1.7%

U.S. GDP is now projected to rise by 1.8% in 2025, down from 2.7% in January—the biggest downgrade (0.9 percentage points) among advanced economies. This is also a 1% decline year-over-year from 2.8% real GDP growth in Q1 2024.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s projected GDP growth has plunged into negative territory. Mexico is particularly vulnerable to high tariffs, with the U.S. accounting for over 70% of its exports. Between their January and April 2025 outlooks, the IMF slashed Mexico’s projected GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points.

China has the highest projected growth rate on the list at 4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the January 2025 projections. Alongside China, the IMF also downgraded Canada’s economic growth rate to 1.4%, down from 2%.

On the contrary, Russia is the only country on the list with an upward revision and is now expected to grow by 1.5% in 2025.

Looking Ahead: Global GDP Growth in 2026

While 2025 is expected to see lower growth as international trade relationships are reforged, the IMF has also revised 2026 projections downward:

Country	2026 GDP Growth Projection (IMF, January 2025)	2026 GDP Growth Projection (IMF, April 2025)	Difference
World	3.3%	3.0%	-0.3%
United States	2.1%	1.7%	-0.4%
Euro Area	1.4%	1.2%	-0.2%
Japan	0.8%	0.6%	-0.2%
United Kingdom	1.5%	1.4%	-0.1%
Canada	2.0%	1.6%	-0.4%
China	4.5%	4.0%	-0.5%
Russia	1.2%	0.9%	-0.3%
Mexico	2.0%	1.4%	-0.6%

Global real GDP growth is now projected at 3% next year, down from 3.3% in January. This is 0.7 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic (2000–2019) average global growth rate of 3.7%.

The U.S. economy is expected to grow just 1.7% in 2026, with the impact of tariffs and trade wars continuously affecting growth over the next year.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed this infographic, check out A Visual Breakdown of Where Economic Power Lies in 2025, on the Voronoi app.

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