Despite the hype, Interact Analysis expects humanoid adoption to remain slow

Agility Robotics, a leading developer of humanoid robots, has deployed its Digit robot with GXO. | Source: Agility Robotics

The nascent humanoid robots market offers a large opportunity, but uptake will be low in the short and medium-term, according to a new report from Interact Analysis. Despite the hype about humanoid robots and significant investment activity, the market intelligence specialist predicts market growth will be relatively slow, reaching over 40,000 units by 2032 with a total market revenue of about $2 billion.

In its new Humanoid Robots report, Interact Analysis assesses the potential and likely future development of the global humanoid robot market by scenario. It concludes there is a large addressable market, an estimated $2 trillion, but four key barriers hamper widespread adoption of technologies.

While its projections for the sector remain conservative, the company has generated a series of three scenarios, optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic, that demonstrate the various trajectories the humanoid robots market could take through to 2032, with each showing steep growth from 2029 onwards.

“The humanoid robot market is currently experiencing substantial hype, fueled by a large addressable market and significant investment activity,” Rueben Scriven, Interact Analysis research manager, said. “However, despite the potential, our outlook remains cautious due to several key barriers that hinder widespread adoption, including high prices and the gap in the dexterity needed to match human productivity levels, both of which are likely to persist into the next decade. However, we maintain that there’s a significant potential in the mid- to long-term.”

Four barriers hindering humanoid adoption

Interact Analysis expects humanoid adoption to be slow in the coming years, but to grow by the end of the 2020s. | Source: Interact Analysis

Interact Analysis said the first factor hindering humanoid robot adoption is regulatory and safety concerns. Humanoid robots, unlike the mobile robots that have become increasingly popular in warehousing and distribution, can lose their balance and topple over at even a small malfunction. Whether the robot can fall safely, without harming humans around it, is a top concern for those interested in deploying humanoids.

Regulatory committees are actively working to develop standards for humanoids, but it’s a work in progress. Until then, end users need to weigh the benefits of adopting humanoids against the concerns of adopting a brand-new technology.

Next, the research firm said dexterity limitations are a top factor limiting adoption. Physical or embodied AI is a quickly developing area of robotics, but, again, it’s still new. While some humanoid companies show incredible videos of humanoid robots performing graceful movements, these videos are often meticulously planned out and prepared. This leaves many potential end users wondering if the robots are up to the task.

Cost is the third factor limiting adoption. Humanoids require many custom components that aren’t yet being produced at scale. This drives up the cost of the entire robot, making them much more expensive than mobile robots or robotic arms.

The final factor is the question of whether humanoids are the optimal form factor for most AI-enabled robotic tasks and applications. The attention around humanoids has blown up in recent years, but, to a much quieter degree, so has the attention around wheeled mobile manipulators.

Many traditional mobile robot or robotic arm companies, as well as plenty of new startups, are working to release wheeled mobile manipulators, which they say provide the same flexibility as a humanoid with tested and proven products.

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Expect gradual standardization

Although the majority of components used to create humanoid robots have been developed in-house, Interact Analysis predicts there will be a gradual standardization of form factors as the market matures. The need for small, lightweight, and highly integrated components with very high torque density has necessitated in-house production, but components will slowly shift to being off-the-shelf.

Given the relative immaturity of the market at present, Interact Analysis has observed significant diversity in design trends, with small humanoid robots often equipped with planetary drives and wider variation with larger, adult-height robots.

There are also regional variations, with many Chinese vendors favoring high-speed motors with harmonic reducers for most joints and more robust, cost-efficient high-torque motors with planetary gearboxes for key areas such as hip joints.

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