Bitcoin hitting $220K ‘reasonable’ in 2025, says gold-based forecast

Key points:

• New Bitcoin price targets leverage interplay with gold to deliver $200,000 and higher this year.

• Bitcoin price cycles remain in focus as part of the BTC price “power curve” model.

• Eating gold’s market cap could propel BTC/USD to nearly $1 million by the decade’s end.

Bitcoin (BTC) has a “decent chance” of hitting $250,000 or more in 2025 as attention turns to gold copycat moves.

In his latest analysis, X analytics account Apsk32 argued that the four-year BTC price cycle should provide unprecedented highs this year.

Bitcoin “power curve” delivers $200,000+ target

Bitcoin following gold to new all-time highs is a popular theory among bulls. Historically, BTC/USD follows XAU/USD higher with a delay of several months.

For Apsk32, the implications are considerable this time around; with gold hitting a record $3,500 per ounce, the future for BTC price action is bright.

“Bitcoin’s position relative to gold has improved considerably since April,” he told X followers alongside his dedicated “power curve” tool. 

“This is the indicator that gives me hope for higher than expected returns later this year.”

The power curve concept involves measuring Bitcoin price in gold ounces to avoid the inflationary nature of the US dollar.

“Here, I’m measuring the value of the Bitcoin network (market cap) in gold ounces and fitting that value to a power curve,” Apsk32 explained in a dedicated X post in March.

Among the results is a potential bull market top target that contextualizes the old 2017 top of $20,000.

“If Bitcoin’s network value measured in gold continues to follow a power curve, and gold holds its current value, and Bitcoin’s price returns to ‘five years ahead of support,’ we could hit Josh’s $444K this year,” it added.

This week, Apsk32 suggested that a more “reasonable” target for 2025 would be up to $220,000.

“If we start getting above $250k, that’s what I would consider ‘higher than expected,’” he responded when asked about the outlook.

“I do think there’s a decent chance we get there, it’s just not the most likely outcome.”

Half gold’s future market cap means $1 million BTC

Continuing the gold theme, Bitcoin analyst Sam Callahan considered data showing how high BTC/USD could go if it were to capture varying portions of gold’s market cap.

Related: Bitcoin to $1M by 2028 as Hayes tells Europe to’ get your money out’

This could come about thanks to a shift toward “digital gold,” something widely anticipated to gain momentum in the coming years.

“If gold hits $5,000/oz by 2030 and Bitcoin captures 50% of its market cap, that puts BTC at $924K,” Callahan noted, alongside the data from the latest report by In Gold We Trust, released this week. 

The report said the data “does not represent a price prediction per se, but rather a scenario-based framework — rooted in our established gold model — that offers a clearer sense of what relative revaluations of non-sovereign hard assets might look like by decade’s end.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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