Are Tariffs Causing U.S. Inflation Fears?

Julia Wendling
2025-05-20 06:22:00
www.visualcapitalist.com

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53 mins ago

May 20, 2025

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Julia Wendling

Article & Editing

Jenna Ross

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Lebon Siu

A line chart on an egg shell with 5-year U.S. inflation expectations showing that expectations are at their highest level in 34 years.

Are Trump’s Tariffs Causing U.S. Inflation Fears?

Key Takeaways

Consumers’ expectations for U.S. inflation in the next five years rose to 4.6% in May, the highest level since March 1991.
One key driver of this increase is the tariffs on major trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, and China.
Despite the recent trade war de-escalation between the U.S. and China, economists also see higher prices ahead.

In May 2025, consumers’ five-year U.S. inflation expectations reached their highest level in 34 years, according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers.

This graphic, created in collaboration with Inigo, provides visual context to the sharp rise in Americans’ expectations for prices in the future.

U.S. Inflation Predictions

Consumers expect the change in prices to hit 4.6% in five years, the highest prediction since March 1991.

Date	5-year Inflation Expectations (%)
May 1, 2025	4.6
April 1, 2025	4.4
March 1, 2025	4.1
February 1, 2025	3.5
January 1, 2025	3.2
December 1, 2024	3.0
November 1, 2024	3.2
October 1, 2024	3.0
September 1, 2024	3.1
August 1, 2024	3.0
July 1, 2024	3.0
June 1, 2024	3.0
May 1, 2024	3.0
April 1, 2024	3.0
March 1, 2024	2.8
February 1, 2024	2.9
January 1, 2024	2.9
December 1, 2023	2.9
November 1, 2023	3.2
October 1, 2023	3.0
September 1, 2023	2.8
August 1, 2023	3.0
July 1, 2023	3.0
June 1, 2023	3.0
May 1, 2023	3.1
April 1, 2023	3.0
March 1, 2023	2.9
February 1, 2023	2.9
January 1, 2023	2.9
December 1, 2022	3.0
November 1, 2022	3.0
October 1, 2022	2.9
September 1, 2022	2.7
August 1, 2022	2.9
July 1, 2022	2.9
June 1, 2022	3.1
May 1, 2022	3.0
April 1, 2022	3.0
March 1, 2022	3.0
February 1, 2022	3.0
January 1, 2022	3.1
December 1, 2021	2.9
November 1, 2021	3.0
October 1, 2021	2.9
September 1, 2021	3.0
August 1, 2021	2.9
July 1, 2021	2.8
June 1, 2021	2.8
May 1, 2021	3.0
April 1, 2021	2.7
March 1, 2021	2.8
February 1, 2021	2.7
January 1, 2021	2.7
December 1, 2020	2.5
November 1, 2020	2.5
October 1, 2020	2.4
September 1, 2020	2.7
August 1, 2020	2.7
July 1, 2020	2.6
June 1, 2020	2.5
May 1, 2020	2.7
April 1, 2020	2.5
March 1, 2020	2.3
February 1, 2020	2.3
January 1, 2020	2.5
December 1, 2019	2.2
November 1, 2019	2.5
October 1, 2019	2.3
September 1, 2019	2.4
August 1, 2019	2.6
July 1, 2019	2.5
June 1, 2019	2.3
May 1, 2019	2.6
April 1, 2019	2.3
March 1, 2019	2.5
February 1, 2019	2.3
January 1, 2019	2.6
December 1, 2018	2.5
November 1, 2018	2.6
October 1, 2018	2.4
September 1, 2018	2.5
August 1, 2018	2.6
July 1, 2018	2.4
June 1, 2018	2.6
May 1, 2018	2.5
April 1, 2018	2.5
March 1, 2018	2.5
February 1, 2018	2.5
January 1, 2018	2.5
December 1, 2017	2.4
November 1, 2017	2.4
October 1, 2017	2.5
September 1, 2017	2.5
August 1, 2017	2.5
July 1, 2017	2.6
June 1, 2017	2.5
May 1, 2017	2.4
April 1, 2017	2.4
March 1, 2017	2.4
February 1, 2017	2.5
January 1, 2017	2.6
December 1, 2016	2.3
November 1, 2016	2.6
October 1, 2016	2.4
September 1, 2016	2.6
August 1, 2016	2.5
July 1, 2016	2.6
June 1, 2016	2.6
May 1, 2016	2.5
April 1, 2016	2.5
March 1, 2016	2.7
February 1, 2016	2.5
January 1, 2016	2.7
December 1, 2015	2.6
November 1, 2015	2.6
October 1, 2015	2.5
September 1, 2015	2.7
August 1, 2015	2.7
July 1, 2015	2.8
June 1, 2015	2.6
May 1, 2015	2.8
April 1, 2015	2.6
March 1, 2015	2.8
February 1, 2015	2.7
January 1, 2015	2.8
December 1, 2014	2.8
November 1, 2014	2.6
October 1, 2014	2.8
September 1, 2014	2.8
August 1, 2014	2.9
July 1, 2014	2.7
June 1, 2014	2.9
May 1, 2014	2.8
April 1, 2014	2.9
March 1, 2014	2.9
February 1, 2014	2.9
January 1, 2014	2.9
December 1, 2013	2.7
November 1, 2013	2.9
October 1, 2013	2.8
September 1, 2013	3.0
August 1, 2013	2.9
July 1, 2013	2.8
June 1, 2013	2.9
May 1, 2013	2.9
April 1, 2013	2.9
March 1, 2013	2.8
February 1, 2013	3.0
January 1, 2013	2.9
December 1, 2012	2.9
November 1, 2012	2.8
October 1, 2012	2.7
September 1, 2012	2.8
August 1, 2012	3.0
July 1, 2012	2.7
June 1, 2012	2.8
May 1, 2012	2.7
April 1, 2012	2.9
March 1, 2012	3.0
February 1, 2012	2.9
January 1, 2012	2.7
December 1, 2011	2.7
November 1, 2011	2.7
October 1, 2011	2.7
September 1, 2011	2.8
August 1, 2011	2.9
July 1, 2011	2.9
June 1, 2011	3.0
May 1, 2011	2.9
April 1, 2011	2.9
March 1, 2011	3.2
February 1, 2011	2.9
January 1, 2011	2.9
December 1, 2010	2.8
November 1, 2010	2.8
October 1, 2010	2.8
September 1, 2010	2.7
August 1, 2010	2.8
July 1, 2010	2.9
June 1, 2010	2.8
May 1, 2010	2.9
April 1, 2010	2.7
March 1, 2010	2.7
February 1, 2010	2.7
January 1, 2010	2.9
December 1, 2009	2.7
November 1, 2009	3.0
October 1, 2009	2.9
September 1, 2009	2.8
August 1, 2009	2.8
July 1, 2009	3.0
June 1, 2009	3.0
May 1, 2009	2.9
April 1, 2009	2.8
March 1, 2009	2.6
February 1, 2009	3.1
January 1, 2009	2.9
December 1, 2008	2.6
November 1, 2008	2.9
October 1, 2008	2.9
September 1, 2008	3.0
August 1, 2008	3.2
July 1, 2008	3.2
June 1, 2008	3.4
May 1, 2008	3.4
April 1, 2008	3.2
March 1, 2008	2.9
February 1, 2008	3.0
January 1, 2008	3.0
December 1, 2007	3.1
November 1, 2007	2.9
October 1, 2007	2.8
September 1, 2007	2.9
August 1, 2007	2.9
July 1, 2007	3.1
June 1, 2007	2.9
May 1, 2007	3.1
April 1, 2007	3.1
March 1, 2007	2.9
February 1, 2007	2.9
January 1, 2007	3.0
December 1, 2006	3.0
November 1, 2006	3.0
October 1, 2006	3.1
September 1, 2006	3.0
August 1, 2006	3.2
July 1, 2006	2.9
June 1, 2006	2.9
May 1, 2006	3.2
April 1, 2006	3.1
March 1, 2006	2.9
February 1, 2006	2.9
January 1, 2006	2.9
December 1, 2005	3.1
November 1, 2005	3.0
October 1, 2005	3.2
September 1, 2005	3.1
August 1, 2005	2.8
July 1, 2005	2.9
June 1, 2005	2.8
May 1, 2005	2.9
April 1, 2005	3.0
March 1, 2005	2.9
February 1, 2005	2.8
January 1, 2005	2.7
December 1, 2004	2.8
November 1, 2004	2.7
October 1, 2004	2.8
September 1, 2004	2.8
August 1, 2004	2.7
July 1, 2004	2.8
June 1, 2004	2.9
May 1, 2004	2.8
April 1, 2004	2.7
March 1, 2004	2.9
February 1, 2004	2.9
January 1, 2004	2.8
December 1, 2003	2.8
November 1, 2003	2.7
October 1, 2003	2.8
September 1, 2003	2.7
August 1, 2003	2.7
July 1, 2003	2.7
June 1, 2003	2.7
May 1, 2003	2.8
April 1, 2003	2.7
March 1, 2003	2.8
February 1, 2003	2.7
January 1, 2003	2.7
December 1, 2002	2.8
November 1, 2002	2.8
October 1, 2002	2.8
September 1, 2002	2.5
August 1, 2002	2.9
July 1, 2002	2.8
June 1, 2002	2.8
May 1, 2002	3.0
April 1, 2002	2.8
March 1, 2002	2.8
February 1, 2002	2.8
January 1, 2002	2.7
December 1, 2001	3.0
November 1, 2001	2.8
October 1, 2001	2.7
September 1, 2001	2.9
August 1, 2001	3.0
July 1, 2001	2.9
June 1, 2001	3.0
May 1, 2001	3.0
April 1, 2001	3.1
March 1, 2001	3.0
February 1, 2001	3.0
January 1, 2001	2.9
December 1, 2000	3.0
November 1, 2000	2.9
October 1, 2000	3.0
September 1, 2000	3.0
August 1, 2000	2.9
July 1, 2000	2.8
June 1, 2000	2.8
May 1, 2000	2.9
April 1, 2000	2.8
March 1, 2000	3.1
February 1, 2000	2.9
January 1, 2000	3.0
December 1, 1999	2.9
November 1, 1999	2.9
October 1, 1999	2.8
September 1, 1999	2.9
August 1, 1999	2.8
July 1, 1999	2.9
June 1, 1999	2.8
May 1, 1999	2.9
April 1, 1999	2.8
March 1, 1999	2.7
February 1, 1999	2.8
January 1, 1999	3.0
December 1, 1998	2.9
November 1, 1998	2.8
October 1, 1998	2.8
September 1, 1998	2.9
August 1, 1998	2.7
July 1, 1998	2.7
June 1, 1998	2.9
May 1, 1998	2.8
April 1, 1998	2.7
March 1, 1998	2.8
February 1, 1998	2.9
January 1, 1998	2.9
December 1, 1997	3.1
November 1, 1997	3.1
October 1, 1997	3.0
September 1, 1997	3.1
August 1, 1997	3.0
July 1, 1997	2.9
June 1, 1997	3.1
May 1, 1997	3.0
April 1, 1997	2.9
March 1, 1997	3.0
February 1, 1997	3.1
January 1, 1997	3.2
December 1, 1996	3.0
November 1, 1996	3.0
October 1, 1996	3.0
September 1, 1996	3.2
August 1, 1996	3.3
July 1, 1996	3.2
June 1, 1996	3.1
May 1, 1996	3.3
April 1, 1996	3.0
March 1, 1996	3.2
February 1, 1996	3.3
January 1, 1996	3.2
December 1, 1995	3.1
November 1, 1995	3.1
October 1, 1995	3.2
September 1, 1995	3.1
August 1, 1995	3.1
July 1, 1995	3.2
June 1, 1995	3.1
May 1, 1995	3.2
April 1, 1995	3.5
March 1, 1995	3.3
February 1, 1995	3.2
January 1, 1995	3.2
December 1, 1994	3.2
November 1, 1994	3.2
October 1, 1994	3.3
September 1, 1994	3.2
August 1, 1994	3.5
July 1, 1994	3.2
June 1, 1994	3.4
May 1, 1994	3.4
April 1, 1994	3.2
March 1, 1994	3.4
February 1, 1994	3.3
January 1, 1994	3.2
December 1, 1993	3.6
November 1, 1993	3.4
October 1, 1993	3.5
September 1, 1993	3.3
August 1, 1993	3.3
July 1, 1993	3.5
June 1, 1993	3.8
May 1, 1993	3.5
April 1, 1993	3.5
March 1, 1993	3.6
February 1, 1993	4.1
January 1, 1993	3.4
December 1, 1992	3.4
November 1, 1992	3.7
October 1, 1992	3.7
September 1, 1992	3.5
August 1, 1992	4.2
July 1, 1992	3.7
June 1, 1992	3.4
May 1, 1992	4.0
April 1, 1992	3.9
March 1, 1992	3.6
February 1, 1992	3.4
January 1, 1992	3.6
December 1, 1991	3.8
November 1, 1991	3.8
October 1, 1991	3.7
September 1, 1991	3.9
August 1, 1991	4.0
July 1, 1991	4.2
June 1, 1991	4.5
May 1, 1991	4.4
April 1, 1991	4.2
March 1, 1991	4.6
February 1, 1991	4.6
January 1, 1991	4.6
December 1, 1990	4.5
November 1, 1990	4.6
October 1, 1990	4.6
September 1, 1990	4.7
August 1, 1990	4.6
July 1, 1990	4.2
June 1, 1990	4.6

May 2025 is preliminary data.

Rising tariffs are one key driver of these expectations. Tariffs could reduce trade with affected countries or lead businesses to pass the tariffs directly to consumers, potentially driving prices higher.

It’s worth noting that U.S. inflation expectations from the general population don’t have much success at predicting actual inflation in the future. However, the fears of higher prices ahead do show the public’s uncertainty about what’s to come.

Inflation So Far During Trump’s Second Term

As of the latest U.S. inflation data for April 2025, tariff policies have not led to higher overall inflation. In fact, the rate of inflation has decreased and egg prices, while still high, lowered. On top of this, the Trump administration has reached a temporary deal to drastically reduce tariffs on Chinese goods. Even so, it is not all good news.

Many companies had stocked up on inventory before the tariffs were implemented, meaning they were able to keep prices stable. However, as that inventory runs out, it’s likely many companies will raise prices. For instance, the proportion of U.S. manufacturers saying that tariffs have led to higher prices spiked to its highest level on record in April.

And even with the U.S.-China deal, economists say average tariffs are now at around 18%, roughly six times higher than before Trump took office. Because of this, economists are also predicting there will be higher prices in the months ahead.

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