Quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s security within five years.

Opinion by: David Carvalho, founder, CEO and chief scientist of Naoris Protocol

Satoshi Nakamoto changed how we define money. In response to the 2008 collapse of the financial institutions in which millions put their trust, Satoshi created a decentralized monetary system built on elliptic curve cryptography.

This combination of cold math and decentralization was a powerful one, attracting not only diehard skeptics but also the world’s largest financial institutions, such as BlackRock. 

In the 16 years of its existence, Bitcoin has never been hacked. All of that is about to change very soon, however, with the advent of quantum computing. This is the biggest single threat to Bitcoin since its inception from the ashes of the global financial crisis.

Once firmly in the realm of science fiction, quantum computers have become so advanced that they could plausibly rip through Bitcoin’s cryptography within five years or less. Some, like quantum pundit Michele Mosca, predict it might even be possible as soon as next year. 

Government agencies like the US National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National Security Agency are aiming to fully transition to quantum-secure standards by 2030. Yet the Bitcoin community appears confined to theoretical solutions, like BIP-360 (Pay-to-Quantum-Resistant-Hash) or commit-delay-reveal schemes. 

The time for theorizing is over. If concrete steps to adapt the Bitcoin blockchain aren’t taken now, Bitcoin’s (BTC) entire $2.2-trillion market cap could go up in smoke. All it would take would be one compromised wallet or botched transaction to erode 16 years of painstakingly built trust.

The rise of supercomputers

This year’s real breakthrough was Microsoft’s Majorana chip, which accelerated the timeline to creating a truly useful quantum supercomputer from decades to years. In simple terms, it did so by paving the way to scalable and stable quantum systems — two of the key issues standing in the way of this technological miracle. 

Fast forward a few months, and we currently find ourselves with around 100 quantum computers operating in the world already. McKinsey estimates there will be 5,000 by 2030. These computers aren’t just faster than the machines we’re all used to — they’re an entirely new breed of computer that runs calculations in parallel instead of in sequence. 

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This is lethal to classical cryptography, like the ECDSA algorithm that protects Bitcoin’s private keys. At least 30% of Bitcoin, or around 6.2 million coins, are currently sitting in pay-to-public-key (P2PK) or reused P2PK-hash addresses, which are particularly vulnerable to this quantum threat. 

A breach would be catastrophic for holders, whose funds would be gone forever, and the ecosystem at large. It would prove that the unbreakable system can be broken. That’s why BlackRock recently acknowledged the threat of quantum to Bitcoin in its updated spot ETF filing. That’s why the time to act is now, before it’s too late.

Prepping for Q-Day

“Q-Day” is the term given to the day that quantum computers are finally ready to break traditional cryptography. When this day comes, Bitcoin transactions validated and secured today, or even 10 years ago, could still be vulnerable because blockchain is fully transparent, and the data remains permanently accessible on this ledger forever. 

On top of this, bad actors are already collecting encrypted data in preparation for Q-Day, in a move dubbed “harvest now, decrypt later.” It wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that several attacks could happen simultaneously across the globe when Q-Day comes. When this happens, Bitcoin better be ready.

A post-quantum future

The problem with upgrading an entire blockchain from legacy to post-quantum cryptography is that it would require a hard fork, which has become almost a taboo subject in crypto communities. This huge step could break the UX, fragment liquidity, risk splitting the network and potentially alienate diehard OGs.

There are alternatives: hybrid solutions that focus on securing transactions first and foremost without touching the base layer, layered security models and quantum-secure key management, and infrastructure that can prepare Bitcoin for the onslaught that is certainly coming.

It isn’t a quick fix. Especially considering how conservative and slow-moving Bitcoin has been historically. Unfortunately, there is no longer any time to waste. Decisions must be made and solutions must be chosen because Bitcoin won’t survive as it is in a post-quantum future.

Satoshi gave the world a new monetary system but never said it couldn’t evolve. Now it’s up to the community to make the choice to evolve it and prepare for Q-Day, rather than waiting until it’s too late. It’s not quantum that’s the most significant risk to Bitcoin — it’s complacency.

Opinion by: David Carvalho, founder, CEO and chief scientist of Naoris Protocol.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.