Forecast: Samsung to stay #1 in foldables, but its lead over Huawei will shrink significantly

The global foldable market is growing at a “measured pace”, writes TrendForce in its latest report. The main obstacles to adoption remain the same – concerns about durability, the crease and, of course, price.

The analysts forecast that 19.8 million foldables will be sold this year, which would be 1.6% of the total smartphone market (about the same fraction as last year).

Samsung is currently in first place on the global foldable market, though its lead over the competition is expected to evaporate – predictions see it going from 45.2% last year to 35.4% this year.

This would put it only a hair ahead of Huawei, whose market share is expected to shrink slightly from 35.2% last year to 34.2% this year. That would leave just over one percentage point between the two companies.

Several other makers are in the running – their shares are small but growing. For example, Honor and Motorola had 6% and 5.5% market share in 2024 and are expected to go up to 9.1% and 7.6% this year.

The combined numbers for Oppo and vivo are predicted to capture 8.5% of the market. Meanwhile, Xiaomi will grow from 3% to 5.1% this year.

TrendForce forecasts that the global foldable market will continue its slow but steady growth in the near future. One thing that could really shake things up is Apple entering the market.

This may happen as soon as next year, with orders for foldable display panels already placed with Samsung Display. Apple is reportedly focused on eliminating the crease and using liquid metal to strengthen the phone. As for the third concern that people have, well, no one expects an Apple device to be cheap – least of all its first foldable.

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