Illiquid ETH, Bullish Futures Pave Possible Path To $5.5K

Key takeaways:

• More than 70% of the Ether supply is staked, underpinning a longer-term bullish environment.

• Ether whales added more than 411,000 ETH in August.

• Binance ETH futures open interest remains above $8.4 billion despite the $4,300 retest.

Ether (ETH) surged to an all-time high of $4,950 in August, fueled by broad market momentum and spot ETH ETF inflows. However, behind the rally, exchange and supply dynamics indicate a mix of short-term caution and long-term bullish signals.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance’s ETH reserves climbed sharply in August. Rising reserves usually hint at profit-taking as more coins move into circulation. Liquid supply has also risen, suggesting some ETH holders are reentering the market. 

Still, the majority of the ETH supply remains illiquid, or locked in staking or long-term holdings, creating a structural shortage that supports the bigger bullish picture. The analysis said,

“The most likely scenario for September is a sideways-to-slightly-bullish move between 4.3k and 5k. If the 4.8k resistance is broken and sustained, we could see 5.2k–5.5k.”

Whale flows reflect a shifting landscape. Glassnode data show that mega whales holding more than 10,000 ETH drove August’s rally with net inflows peaking above 2.2 million ETH in 30 days. That accumulation has now stalled, while large whales (1,000–10,000 ETH) have returned to buying, adding more than 411,000 ETH over the same period. This rotation shows that demand hasn’t disappeared, even if the largest holders pause their activity.

Related: Spot Bitcoin ETFs surge, Ether funds bleed as investors flee for safety

ETH futures signal conviction despite price dip

ETH futures data adds further context. Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that despite ETH sliding below $4,300 this week, Binance open interest has held firm above $8.4 billion, the same threshold seen on Aug. 30.

Normally, sharp price drops trigger liquidation-driven flush, but the resilience here suggests traders are staying put, either betting on a rebound or unfazed by further downside.

The pace of contraction is also slowing. Open interest fell 6.25% earlier in the week but eased to 3.4%, pointing to cooling deleveraging pressure. Net taker volume on Binance remains negative, signaling sellers are in control, yet the stability in open interest shows that buyers are absorbing a meaningful portion of that pressure.

Meanwhile, spot flows continue to tighten supply. Withdrawals from Binance and Kraken regularly exceed 120,000 ETH per day, reinforcing the illiquid supply narrative and dampening future sell-side depth.

Related: ETH staking entry queue surges to two-year high as institutions accumulate

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.