BTC Eyes 70% Rally Odds Toward New Highs

Key takeaways:

• Analyst sees a 70% chance that Bitcoin hits fresh highs within two weeks.

• Spot ETF inflows and bullish futures premiums reinforce the upside outlook.

• Internal liquidity near $114,000-$113,000 could spark a brief pullback before a breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) is setting the stage for a potential rally, with analysts pointing to a 70% probability that the cryptocurrency could push toward fresh all-time highs within the next two weeks. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., market conditions are currently balanced and primed for a move higher.

Adler Jr. highlights that the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day cohorts are hovering near zero, indicating that the market is neither overheated nor oversold. With BTC trading just above the STH realized price, the setup suggests a one-to-two-week consolidation phase could precede a breakout. “Uptober incoming,” Adler Jr. noted, pointing to seasonal tailwinds.

Derivatives data further reinforced the constructive outlook. Bitcoin futures are trading at a consistent premium to spot, with the seven-day basis running above the 30-day, a structure typically linked with bullish trends. However, Adler Jr. cautioned that minor overheating signals appeared ahead of the recent FOMC event, where cost basis rose on light volume, suggesting some late-stage positioning.

Still, the base case remains tilted toward strength. “There’s a 70% chance the next two weeks will see a stepwise uptrend or sideways consolidation,” Adler Jr. explained. 

Meanwhile, institutional demand remains a firm anchor as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.8 billion in net inflows since Sept. 9, pushing activity decisively into positive territory. With inflows supporting BTC price and technical indicators aligning, traders are bracing for what could be a defining stretch in Bitcoin’s next bullish leg. 

Related: Bitcoin to test all-time high ‘quickly’ if bulls reclaim $118K: Trader

Does Bitcoin pause for a dip, or break straight toward $124,000?

Bitcoin has rallied 8.5% this month, climbing to $117,800 from $107,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The steady rise has left behind pockets of internal liquidity, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback before continuation. September’s seasonality, historically leaning bearish, adds weight to this scenario.

That being said, Bitcoin’s broader behavior in 2025 has largely defied expectations for retracements. For much of the year, the asset has skipped over internal liquidity levels, instead moving between external liquidity zones, i.e., swing highs and lows on higher time frame charts over multiple weeks. A comparable move occurred in July, when BTC bypassed liquidity near $105,000 and quickly surged to new highs after confirming a daily break of structure (BOS).

A similar setup appears to be forming now. If Bitcoin secures a daily close above $117,500, it would confirm another BOS and sharply reduce the odds of a dip below $114,000. Such a development would also align with analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s projection of new all-time highs within the next two weeks.

While a narrow window remains for a retest of order blocks near $114,000–$113,000, improving macroeconomic conditions and accelerating ETF inflows suggest buyers may step in earlier, limiting downside opportunities. The balance between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum may decide whether Bitcoin pauses or breaks directly toward $124,000.

Related: Knocking Bitcoin’s lack of yield shows your ‘Western financial privilege’

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.